#23 Seven Predictions for 2025

What will the new year hold for tech, business, and UX? Predicting the future is always risky—there's no quicker way to look foolish—but who can resist the challenge?

Here's my take on what 2025 might bring.

1. Incremental Progress

2025 isn't likely to bring any groundbreaking changes to the technology we use every day. The new iPhones? They'll probably look and feel much like the last few. Laptops will still be laptops. Meta's glasses and Apple's headset will still just be novelties. The tools we rely on will continue to evolve—but in small, quiet ways. A touch more polish here, a slight refinement there.

Why? Part of the answer is consolidation. A few big players dominate the tech landscape, and while they are great at scaling existing solutions, this kind of market concentration often slows down real innovation. Then, there's the cautious financial climate caused by, e.g., high interest rates. Companies prioritize optimization and profits over future offerings and growth. For this to change dramatically, we need to see breakups of the tech giants and forward-leaning budgets, and we're not there yet.

Prediction: There will be no significant leaps in consumer technology in 2025, with a possible exception for voice (see below).

2. AI Plateu and Mass Adoption

In Generative AI—where investments have been huge despite the financial climate—the pace of breakthroughs seems to be slowing down. We seem to be reaching the peak of what this generation of Generative AI can offer. Each new iteration feels just a little less groundbreaking than the last.

Scaling compute and data generated rapid advancements in the beginning. Still, the law of diminishing returns suggests that the next leap will require insights on par with the seminal research paper "Attention is All You Need."

That doesn't mean what's been accomplished isn't extraordinary. It is, especially with things like translation for a non-native English speaker like myself. Just over two years ago, tools like ChatGPT and LLMs like 4o would have felt like science fiction.

In 2025, we're entering a phase of mass adoption and practical application. Our operating systems and applications will soon be littered with sometimes helpful "AI-powered" features. We'll see specialized tools that effectively use the current generation's strengths while simultaneously trying to compensate for its weaknesses.

Honestly, from a UX and human perspective, this "pause" in technological progress is probably a good thing. Many unintended side effects must be figured out (training data, IP rights, energy consumption, etc.). This period of recalibration could, if we as a society prioritize it, allow us to focus on solving problems that are genuinely important to us as humans.

Prediction: The tech side of the current Generative AI boom plateaus in 2025, and the focus will shift to what we can actually do with these new capabilities.

3. Voice User Interfaces

Voice technology is quietly maturing, and 2025 might be the year it steps into the spotlight. Voice interactions are spreading far beyond smart speakers and phone assistants—into cars, mobile apps, and even household appliances. The challenge, though, is that most of the time, these interactions still… well, suck.

Take my connected home speakers. They consistently misinterpret me—something my old Alexa and Google Assistant setups did just as often. And Siri? Let's not even go there. For years, these tools have felt like they're almost good enough but not quite there.

However, recent advances in speech recognition and conversational interfaces are making these systems much better. When OpenAI released its iOS app, I routed the Action button on my iPhone to ChatGPT, and it's been genuinely useful. It "understands" me better than Siri ever did.

And "listening" as a way to consume content is growing, too. Take podcasts, for example—they've grown from a niche interest to a mainstream phenomenon. In 2019, there were 274.8 million global listeners. By 2024, that number has doubled to over 546 million.

I, for one, am looking forward to effortlessly listening to newspaper articles—read with a high-quality voice—while walking the dog or telling my car to re-route for a quick charge and a snack, and being able to trust that it works without having to triple check the result eleven taps away. I think 2025 might (finally) be that year.

Prediction: In 2025, Voice User Interfaces will finally start to deliver on their potential, eventually reshaping how we interact with much of technology. This evolution will also create new opportunities for UX professionals to specialize in conversational design and voice-first experiences.

4. Peak Figma

Figma has been a go-to tool for designers for years now. But as it grows, it's becoming bloated. Overloaded with features, trying to cater to everyone, everywhere.

This isn't unusual. Software often follows a predictable cycle: a nimble, focused product gains popularity and then expands to serve a broader audience or set of use cases. The result? Feature creep, complexity, and inefficiency. It's like a Swiss Army knife that keeps adding new tools. At first, it's practical—everything you need in one place. But over time, it becomes unwieldy. The tools are harder to access, and you find yourself longing for a simple screwdriver or knife that just works.

For teams looking for quick, streamlined solutions, this creates friction. And where there's friction, there's opportunity.

Prediction: 2025 could be the year we see new tools emerge—lightweight, focused alternatives to Figma that solve specific design challenges with simplicity and speed. Tools that do less… but do it better.

5. UX Shift to Product Management

This shift is not a new trend, but it is accelerating and significant enough to be worth a mention. More UX researchers and designers are transitioning into Product Management roles. It makes sense—many of the skills overlap. Many senior UX professionals are trained to see the big picture, balancing user needs with business goals and technical constraints.

For organizations, this is a win. PMs with a UX background bring a user-first perspective to decision-making. They're often better equipped to advocate for customers while navigating and prioritizing roadmaps.

But the transition has its challenges. For many, moving into Product Management means learning new skills—like business strategy, stakeholder management, and technical planning. It's not easy, but for those who embrace it, the rewards can be significant.

Prediction: In 2025, more UX professionals than ever will take this path, redefining their careers and elevating the role of UX within organizations. This shift will strengthen the bridge between design and strategy, making teams more cohesive and effective.

6. Challenging Job Market, But…

Like 2024, the first half of 2025 will likely remain challenging for UX professionals. High interest rates and cautious hiring trends will keep opportunities scarce, particularly in tech and retail. Companies are still focused on cost efficiency, which often translates into leaner teams and delayed hiring decisions.

That said, there are reasons to stay hopeful. As I wrote back in June, for us at Ambition, the low point felt like it was about six months ago. Since then, things have been moving—slowly, yes, but steadily—upwards. Knock on wood.

More broadly, there are positive indicators for the months ahead. Economies don't stay stagnant forever, and the Swedish policy rate, currently at 2.75%, is forecasted to drop to 2% in 2025. Cheaper capital means businesses can start investing again, and growth, innovation, and hiring tend to follow.

Prediction: The UX job market will remain tough through the first half of 2025, but by autumn, we'll likely see signs of a steady recovery. Opportunities will come for those prepared to ride out the storm.

7. Accessibility Shows Promise

For those of you specializing in Accessibility, 2025 will likely be an especially good year. The EU's Accessibility Directive is beginning to take hold. This regulation is pushing organizations to prioritize inclusive design, which means they'll need UX professionals who understand accessibility.

This isn't just an opportunity for senior designers with years of experience. Junior designers will likely benefit, too, especially as formal training in accessibility is increasingly embedded in UX education. For many organizations, compliance with these new regulations could act as a catalyst—reigniting investment in user-centered design and creating opportunities to build products that are not only compliant but genuinely inclusive and effective.

Prediction: Accessibility-driven initiatives will create new opportunities for both senior and junior professionals.

Cheers to What's Ahead

2025 may not bring the revolutionary changes we sometimes hope for, but perhaps that's exactly what we need. Progress doesn't always come in leaps; it often happens in quiet moments of refinement—when we focus on making what's already here better, more useful, and more human.

This year may be a chance to recalibrate—whether it's by building simpler tools, integrating technology more thoughtfully, or finding meaningful ways to make life a little more accessible for everyone. Small steps, taken with care, can have a lasting impact.

So, cheers to what's ahead—whatever it may be. 🥂